Kyoto Protocol - what is that?
Alexey Kokorin, Head of Climatic program, WWF of Russia
Kyoto Protocol is pilot stage of the global ecological agreement on prevention of catastrophic changes of the climate. The climatic effect from first phase Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) is insignificant, but it is important to begin practical activities and to start mechanisms of the international cooperation.
Many countries, especially the poor, strongly suffer from change of the climate. In Russia the serious damage while is not present, but serious danger exists. Climatic system of the Earth inertial, and we beforehand should solve what and how to act if uncongenial forecasts of scientists will come true.
If the Government of Russia will manage to create effective national mechanisms of Kyioto Protocol, it becomes the good channel of attraction of additional investments for modernization of power, municipal engineering, for conversion of boiler-houses from coal to gas and renewable energy sources. There are also to be considered, that at reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, for example, while conversing of power stations and boiler-houses from coal to gas air pollution sharply decreases that results to reduction of pulmonic deseases, an asthma etc. Researches in 6 cities of Russia (Moscow, Nizhniy Novgorod, Voronezh etc.) have allowed to estimate the effect over Russia from prime measures on reduction of greenhouse gases emissions as reduction of death rate on 40 thousand person per one year.
The Protocol is quite good additional stimulus for projects and measures on increase power efficiency and power saving. In scales of all economy of Russia Kyoto Protocol effect pecuniarily is expected $1-2 billion in 2008 - 2012.
It is important to emphasize, that Kyoto Protocol does not cause any negative effects for current Russian social and environmental problems. It is not required any special measures on reduction of greenhouse gases emissions which would result in closing the enterprises or infringement of social infrastructure.
In such situation regional administrations, business and the public have direct reason to support active participation of Russia in Kyoto Protocol and, as far as possible, to take advantage of additional ecological and social opportunities of the given international agreement.
Today overwhelming majority of scientists has come to opinion, that this unprecedented fast change of the climate is the anthropogenous effect caused first of all by burning of mineral fuel.
Scientists consider, that safe level of global warming - 2 Celsius degrees and the mankind has already passed third of this "distance." In opinion of ecologists, it is necessary to use the best efforts for reduction of greenhouse gases emissions and to not allow warming more than on 2 degrees. You see it is "average" degrees, in many places 2 means 5 and even 10 degrees, and it is too much.